Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, even as Tehran repeatedly complains that the White House is ‘unconvincing’, have given oil markets a powerful bearish impetus, sending ICE Brent below $105 per barrel in one of the most drastic daily drops in recent history.
That said, the chaos before US midterm elections, with Trump launching ‘defensive strikes’ on Iran’s Qeshm island and then suggesting he would halt the $4 billion in military support to Israel, will add to the upcoming days’ volatility.
OPEC+ Holds Quotas Steady as Supply Stagnates. OPEC+’s remaining seven core members rolled over November production quotas into December, sticking to 31.01 million b/d even though actual output remains 4.21 million b/d below target as Middle Eastern wars constrain physical supply.
Russia Extends Diesel Ban, Excepting US-Bound Flows. Moscow extended its diesel export ban to January 2027 to protect domestic supply, introducing exemptions for US and other key buyers that could lift November shipments to 540,000 b/d, more than double October’s 240,000 b/d average.
Portugal Considers Tightening Its Grip on Galp. The Portuguese government is considering increasing its 8% stake in the country’s national oil firm Galp (ELI:GALP) after its merger talks with Spain’s Moeve collapsed, reflecting a broader push to protect strategic energy infrastructure.
Indigenous Case Threatens Canada’s Midstream Plans. A First Nation in British Columbia has filed a court challenge against the Canadian government for fast-tracking the 1 million b/d Pacific Link pipeline, claiming Ottawa didn’t fully assess the impact on indigenous rights before approving it.
Nigeria’s State Oil Firm Eyes IPO Bonanza. Nigeria’s state oil company NNPC is considering an initial 5%–10% domestic IPO after 2027, with a potential secondary listing in London or New York, seeking to replicate Dangote’s successful $4.8 billion domestic IPO to fund its downstream investments.
Goldman Warns of Potential Price Spikes to $140. US banking giant Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) raised its December Brent forecast to $105 per barrel and lifted its 2027 average to $88 per barrel, warning that oil prices could reach $140 if Gulf output remains 3.5 million b/d below 2025 levels.
Ukraine to Continue Strikes on Russian Refineries. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy said Ukraine will continue striking Russian refineries until Moscow stops attacking its energy system, lowering hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough ahead of the November 10-11 talks in the UAE’s Abu Dhabi.
Aramco Starts Feeling the Houthi Pinch. The adjusted Q3 net profit of Saudi national oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) rose 9% year-on-year to $31.2 billion, although it dropped almost 7% compared to Q2 2026 amidst incessant Houthi attacks on pipelines, refineries and terminals.
Tehran Threatens Shippers Transiting Hormuz. Iran warned of detention and confiscation against all vessels owned or operated by Sinokor, the champion of Hormuz transits, threatening legal enforcement against the South Korean shipper’s tankers from November 1 onwards.
Thailand Raises Taxes on Imported EVs Thailand will raise excise tax on imported electric vehicles (EVs) lacking local content to 35% from the current 10-15% from January 2027 onwards, seeking to localise vehicle manufacturing domestically after September EV imports doubled year-on-year.
IEA Warns of Prolonged Gas Tightness. The International Energy Agency warned that tightness in natural gas markets would extend into 2027 as EU storage could fall below 10% by March in case of Hormuz LNG disruptions and colder weather, seeing global LNG supply shrink 3% this year.
Riyadh Doubles Down on East-West Pipeline Expansion. Saudi Arabia has begun work on expanding its East-West pipeline from the current 7 million b/d capacity to 10 million b/d, with CEO Amin Nasser stating preliminary engineering is underway, with commissioning expected by 2029.
Russia to Sell Shipping Stake to Raise Budget Funds. Russia plans to sell 7.8% of its national shipping company Sovcomflot to potentially raise $200 million for its strained budget, while retaining 75% plus one share as SCF swung to a $278 million net profit in H1 2026 after years of losses.
Soaring Gas Prices Prompt Egyptian Urea Cuts. As LNG prices in the Mediterranean continue to hover above $30 per MMBtu, Egypt’s government requested most of the country’s urea producers to lower operating rates by 20% amidst widespread natural gas curtailments, impacting fertilisers.
Iran Seeks to Curb Gasoline Consumption. Iran targets cutting gasoline use to 755,000 b/d by January 2027, down 10% from current levels, through tiered pricing and alternative fuels, as refinery outages and the prospect of renewed hostilities with the US foreshadow gasoline shortages.
Oilprice.com
