Saudi Arabia is gradually becoming the embodiment of supply risks to oil markets this month, with the Houthis forcing the Riyadh airport into a protracted shutdown and threatening to further damage the kingdom’s energy infrastructure.
Simultaneously, a proliferation of missile strikes on tankers seeking to transit the Hormuz keeps Gulf flows on tenterhooks, whilst most of the media attention is drawn to the wishy-washy US-Russia diesel deal. The emerging Saudi-Houthi war will define this week’s trading range as ICE Brent keeps on trending around $105 per barrel.
Trump Opens the Door to Russian Diesel. US President Trump lifted sanctions on Russian exports of diesel, with Moscow pledging to deliver 300,000 tonnes (75,000 b/d) in October, rising to 500,000 tonnes in November (125,000 b/d) and peaking at 1 million tonnes (250,000 b/d) by year-end 2026.
OPEC Pushes the Oil Demand Recovery Into 2027. OPEC has slashed its demand forecast growth this year to 400,000 b/d (a stark contrast to the IEA’s 1.6 million b/d contraction), down from 1.4 million b/d before the US-Iran war started, deferring the recovery in global consumption to 2027,
Washington Taps the SPR After Hurricane Isaias. The US Energy Department authorized an emergency exchange of up to 4 million barrels of crude to keep refinery runs across the Gulf Coast after Hurricane Isaias shut 70% of offshore output at its peak, with firms required to return the oil.
Riyadh Attacks Empty the Energy Congress’s Top Table. The chief executives of ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell, Chevron and BP disappeared from the schedule of the World Petroleum Congress in Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks on Riyadh threaten the kingdom’s security image.
Trump Declares an Invisible Energy Truce. US President Trump says Russia and Ukraine agreed to halt energy attacks, however Ukrainian President Zelenskyy claimed he had received no details of the truce while Washington threatened to suspend intelligence and arms support to pressure Kyiv.
Fatal Landslide Halts Part of El Teniente. Chile’s state-controlled mining giant Codelco suspended operations at the El Teniente copper mine after heavy rainfall triggered a landslide that killed two contractors, with the output halt triggering a rebound in LME copper prices to $14,620 per tonne.
US LNG Fills Spain’s Russian Supply Gap. Spanish LNG importers completely halted imports of Russian liquefied gas last month, substituting Yamal LNG flows with incremental purchases from the US as American cargoes supplied a record 48% of Spain’s gas in September, totalling 13.46TWh.
Saudi Arabia Mulls a Bigger Escape Route. Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) is aiming to expand its Hormuz bypassing capacity by another 3 million b/d to 10 million b/d by 2030, beginning with a dual-use gas pipeline capable of carrying 1.2mn b/d of crude.
China Eyes the Data Behind LME Metal Flows. China’s state-backed infrastructure investor Shanghai International Port Group is reportedly in talks to buy LME-approved warehousing firm H&M Metal Warehousing, seeking to expand Chinese exposure to data and flows within the LME infrastructure.
IEA Pushes for Another Diesel Lifeline. The International Energy Agency said that its members should consider further releases of diesel from strategic stocks following the 50-million-barrel release agreed in early October, meeting on October 15 to ‘take stock’ of efforts taken up until now.
Dangote Gives Africa’s Biggest IPO Two More Weeks. Nigeria’s top refinery, the 700,000 b/d Dangote plant, has extended its share offering to October 27 as it seeks to bolster interest from global institutions, targeting a $1.6 billion capital raise to finance doubling its capacity by 2029.
Shell Warns of Australia’s Gas Reserve ‘Sledgehammer’. Cecile Wake, the head of Shell Australia, warned that Canberra’s plan to force LNG exporters to reserve up to 20% of output from 2028 is a ‘sledgehammer’ solution, risking market failure as gas prices would fall too low for producers.
French State Takes Over Key Mining Giant. The French government will raise its stake in the nickel, manganese and lithium producer Eramet (EPA: ERA) from 27% to as much as 49% through a $600-million capital increase and share purchase, as Paris seeks to secure access to strategic metals.
Kashagan’s $5.2 Billion Fine Moves Closer to Collection. A Kazakh court rejected the NCOC consortium’s appeal against the environmental penalty for excess sulphur storage and other alleged breaches at the Kashagan offshore field, leaving the legally binding fine open to enforced collection.
Beijing Puts the Brakes on Its EV Export Boom. China will cut the export tax rebate on its new energy vehicles (NEV) to 9% from 13%, effective from 1 April 2027, increasing the export costs of Chinese EV carmakers from next year onwards and likely triggering a front-loading spree in Q4 2026.
Oilprice.com
