Oil prices are set for a slight 2% weekly gain, despite rumours that this week’s opening of the 2026 UN General Assembly sparked yet another diplomatic push to end Middle Eastern hostilities.
Interestingly, the US benchmark WTI is set for a steep 7% decline as soaring freight prices and Trump’s toying with the idea of an export diesel ban soured the outlook for the American crude market. With WTI now trading $12 per barrel below ICE Brent, the market seems to be harbouring deep concerns about US refiners cutting runs (and buying less crude).
US-Iran Explore Hormuz-for-Sanctions Deal. US and Iranian negotiators are reportedly discussing a phased deal that would see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a rollback of the US blockade, amidst reports of intensifying US military aircraft movement across the Middle East.
Libya Backs Away From El Sharara Force Majeure. Libya’s NOC denied declaring force majeure at the 300,000 b/d El Sharara field, despite confirming earlier that production had been cut by 60% to just 120,000 b/d after members of the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) shut a key pipeline valve.
Russia Opens a New Arctic Oil Export Frontier. Russia’s largest state oil firm Rosneft began commercial Vostok Oil loadings from the new Sever Bay terminal, with initial flows reaching 150,000 b/d, to be subsequently boosted to 600,000 b/d by late 2027 as Moscow eyes alternative shipping corridors.
US Diesel Export Ban Threat Alarms Europe. The European Union is pressing Washington over a mulled 90-day diesel export ban that could leave EU buyers scrambling for any available volumes, with the EU confronting its 700,000 b/d supply deficit, having shuttered 11 major refineries over the past 10 years.
India Deepens Its Shift to US Cooking Gas. Indian state refiners IOC, BPCL and HPCL plan to raise term US LPG purchases by more than 25% to 2.76 million tonnes in 2027, seeking at least five monthly cargoes as persistent Hormuz disruptions force diversification from Middle Eastern exporters.
Riyadh Rejects Blame for Soaring Gulf Freight. The Saudi government denied purchasing 25 tankers after Iraq claimed the alleged $4.5 billion deal lifted its crude transport costs from $26 to $37 per barrel, attributing unprecedented regional shipping rates to conflict and disrupted navigation through Hormuz.
France Pushes EU to Ease Fuel Supply Rules. The European Commission is considering delaying its methane emissions regulations by one year after French President Macron called for a relaxation of EU regulations on an ‘exceptional basis’, although any formal delay requires member-state approval.
Consultant Takes Over Troubled Iron Ore Trader. A Singapore court appointed KPMG as interim judicial manager of iron ore trader Radiant World, currently sued by Glencore (LON:GLEN) for $2 billion over fraudulent invoices, after creditor Mizuho Bank withdrew its push for rival consultant Deloitte.
Soaring Insurance Undermines Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu Restart. War-risk premiums for Yanbu-linked tankers have soared to around 3% of vessel value, up from less than 1% in early July, complicating the restoration of roughly 4 million b/d of exports through Saudi Arabia’s key Red Sea port of Yanbu.
Egypt’s Gas Deficit Crosses a Historic Threshold. Egypt imported more gas than it produced in July for the first time in 15 years, with incoming flows reaching 3.3 bcm against 3.2 bcm produced domestically, amidst rising domestic power demand that now accounts for 64% of its natural gas consumption.
Iran Warns of Conflict Expanding to the Indian Ocean. A senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader said a new round of US or Israeli attacks could broaden the conflict beyond the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, potentially threatening key export terminals outside of the Hormuz such as Fujairah and Sohar.
Seoul Mulls Diversification from Gulf Supplies. South Korea’s Industry Ministry plans to cut the country’s reliance on Middle Eastern crude oil from 70% in 2025 to 50% by 2035, seeking to add 20 million barrels of storage by 2030 and diversify naphtha flows as 45% of its demand is met by imports.
Shipping’s Green Fuel Transition Drifts Off Course. Global maritime industry groups are warning that the sector is falling behind its 2030 target for zero-emission fuels to supply 5–10% of bunker demand as the IMO delays its net-zero framework, despite record orders for alternative-fuelled vessels in August.
Chinese Hybrids Capture Record Share of Europe. Chinese brands reached nearly 12% of European new-car sales in August and captured a quarter of the hybrid-car market, benefiting from consumer concerns over fully electric vehicles and the absence of EU tariffs on imported Chinese hybrids.
Germany Revives Fuel Tax Relief as War Costs Bite. Germany’s government approved a €0.17-per-litre ($0.73 per gallon) tax cut on gasoline and diesel from October through December, costing federal and state governments $2.9 billion as the prolonged Iran war intensifies pressure on household budgets.
Oilprice.com
