A TradingPlatforms.com projection shows that the U.S economy will recede in 2023. The website bases its prediction on a survey of the nation’s economic outlook. That survey featured 525 respondents drawn from the financial and investments sectors.
The survey sought to find out their predictions for the next U.S. recession. A majority of those polled (48.4%) picked next year.
Industry experts’ take
Tradingplatforms.com’s finance expert Edith Reads has weighed in on the matter. She holds, “We’re in the middle of the highest inflation since 1982. Again, The FED has suggested that it could raise its rates by up to 25 basis points to contain the situation. The Russian incursion into Ukraine has seen gas prices balloon and disrupted supply chains. All these factors suggest that we’re starting a recession soon.”
Deutsche Bank has also warned of an economic downturn within the next couple of years. The bank cited the Russian-Ukraine conflict and the rising inflation rates in the U.S as key reasons for its conclusions.
Historical pointers
Other analysts like Lawrence Summers have provided historical clues to the impending downturn. In a Washington Post Op-Ed, he affirms the current situation mirrors others in the last 75 years that have ended in recessions.
He says two indicators embolden his stance. First, inflation is above 6%, and second, unemployment rates have fallen to below 4%. Summers says that the economy suffered when that has happened in the past.
Gary Pzegeo, Fixed Income lead at CIBC, insists that market signals point us in that direction. One such signal is the yield curve’s recent inversion. He argued that the Russia-Ukraine conflict precipitated the curve’s inversion. This bar, a single false signal, has correctly predicted recessions since 1955.
The full story and statistics can be found here: US Likely to go into recession in 2023
