Survey of Top Economists: U.S to See Faster Economic Growth

U.S President Trump

Barcelona, Spain, January 31, 2018 – A new survey by FocusEconomics released Tuesday showed that the majority of the 93 international macroeconomic experts polled believe the U.S. economy will accelerate this year.

 Economists from leading institutions around the world think that the Fed will hike interest rates 3 times and that the fiscal stimulus will drive up inflation.

Looking at major threats to the U.S. economy, 50% of analysts polled believe a sudden change in financial conditions is the most likely risk this year, followed by a withdrawal from NAFTA and the Russian investigation. Most analysts, however, expect NAFTA to be preserved with only minor changes, although a small portion do see the U.S. pulling out of the agreement completely.

Our Consensus Forecast projects growth of 2.6% in 2018, which is higher than last month’s projection. In 2019, growth is seen moderating to 2.1%. “Analysts’ upbeat growth estimates are in part grounded in the recently approved tax reform, which delivers a sizeable permanent tax reduction for corporations and a more modest temporary cut for households,” said David Ampudia, U.S. Economist at FocusEconomics.

Regarding whether President Trump’s infrastructure spending bill will be passed by Congress, Ampudia says that, “analysts are fiercely divided on the odds any such plan would have of making it through Congress, particularly against a bleak fiscal outlook.”

Most economists surveyed foresee wage growth picking up slightly, to just over last year’s level. Harm Bandholz, Chief U.S. Economist at UniCredit said: “We have essentially reached full employment,” and as such, “payroll gains will slow towards the pace of labor force growth.”

The FocusEconomics U.S. Economic Survey was conducted from 4 to 23 January 2018 among chief economists and senior economists from leading international and local economic institutions worldwide. Survey participants included chief economists from international institutions such as Oxford Economics, Coface, BMI Research, Moody’s Analytics, Capital Economics and JPMorgan, among many others.

Instructively, FocusEconomics is a leading provider of economic analysis and forecasts for 127 countries in Asia, Europe, Africa and the Americas, as well as 33 key commodities.

The company is supported by an extensive global network of analysts from the world’s most renowned international investment banks and top national financial institutions.

Each month, the company surveys thousands of carefully selected economic experts from the leading banks, think tanks and consultancies to obtain their projections for the main economic indicators and commodities prices. The forecasts are corroborated and analyzed by our in-house team of economists and complemented with analysis on the latest economic trends.
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