February 4, 2020//-Employers around the world are increasingly anxious about the economic consequences of the Coronavirus 2019-nCoV.
It is now becoming disturbingly clear that the responses of governments outside China, airlines and some members of the medical profession are based more on ignorance than insight.
Fortunately, a growing body of medical expert opinion, particularly in the USA, is now supporting the view that the new virus is far less dangerous than flu.
These include Dr John Addlesperger, Chief Medical Officer of Sheridan Memorial Hospital, Dr William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Dr Cole Sondrup of Hospital Corporation of America and Svenn-Erik Mamelund, an epidemic expert from Oslo University.
Ironically, the measures taken to protect China’s population from the new cold-like virus could have an entirely unintended outcome. This is because isolating the population will significantly reduce the incidence and spread of influenza itself.
We estimate that the death rate from influenza in China during the Winter and Spring months is 14,300 a week. If this were reduced by only 20% then the lives saved would be 2,860 per week.
This contrasts with the almost 400 or so lives lost over a six-week period due to the new coronavirus. So, the deaths from 2019-nCoV are very far below those saved in respect to flu. In fact, the net lives saved would total around 16,700 – thanks to the efficient and speedy precautions taken by the Chinese authorities.
By contrast to China, the USA has its own much more lethal health issue. It loses over 3,000 lives a week to drugs, alcohol abuse and suicide – largely people in the prime of their lives.
One factor that has been overlooked is also the current state of health of the Chinese population. The incidence of lower respiratory disease is actually quite small by international standards.
However, the incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), mainly due to smoking and pollution, is very high by international standards and accounts for over 9% of all premature deaths. Thus, the 2019-nCoV is having a disproportionate effect on the Chinese population because of its existing vulnerability.
This makes the Coronavirus seem far more severe than it would be to populations outside China – hence the low mortality rate experienced internationally.
Speaking at a meeting of major employers today Robin Chater, Secretary-General of The Federation of International Employers (FedEE) drew from his extensive knowledge of medical statistics and first-hand experience of China to point out that “there has long been established a relationship between income and health (for instance – the research of Ecob and Davey Smith reported back in 1999) and this has also been found to translate to the relationship between per capital GDP and health.
Thus, if the Chinese economy underperforms by as little as 2% growth this year then the morbidity rate from all life-threatening conditions, over and above the new virus, will rise accordingly – accounting for thousands of unnecessary deaths.
As employers we need to pull together to underline the disproportionality of the current responses around the world to this fairly middle-order disease – novel as it is.
We cannot afford to let it drag down the Chinese economy or endanger global economic growth. Things were looking brighter at year end – but now the dangers of a World-wide recession later this year are again looming large”.
Instructively, the Federation of International Employers (FedEE) is a leading corporate membership organisation for multinational companies.
It was founded in 1998, with financial assistance from the European Commission. Today it is an independent body with corporate members all around the globe.
African Eye Report
