The ongoing Middle East conflict presents a serious risk to Africa, with most countries still growing at rates below the pre-COVID growth path.
Overall, a loss in output growth of 0.2 percentage points on Africa’s GDP is projected for 2026 if it exceeds six months.
The extent of this impact would vary across the continent based on levels of import dependency, exposure to the Middle East, and global market conditions.
Thus, the longer the conflict lasts and the more severe the disruption to shipping routes and energy and fertiliser supplies, the greater the risk of a significant growth slowdown across the continent.
More broadly, the conflict, which already has triggered a trade shock, could quickly turn into a cost-of-living crisis across Africa through higher fuel and food prices, rising shipping and insurance costs, exchange rate pressures, and tighter fiscal conditions.
For some African countries, the fertiliser channel may be even more consequential than the oil shock.
Disruptions to Gulf liquid natural gas (LNG) supply would affect ammonia and urea production, raising fertiliser costs and constraining supply during the crucial March-to-May planting season.
This would put further upward pressure on food prices and hit vulnerable households hardest, with significant negative impacts on food security in Africa.
The Middle East accounts for 15.8 per cent of Africa’s imports and 10.9 per cent of its exports, while the Strait of Hormuz handles around 20 percent of global oil exports and nearly 90 p ercent of Persian Gulf oil exports.
While the conflict is generating broad economic risks for Africa, a few countries may see short-term gains through higher commodity prices, trade diversion, and rerouted logistics.
Nigeria stands to benefit from higher oil prices and the export expansion of the Dangote Refinery, while Mozambique could gain from renewed momentum in LNG and increased traffic through the Port of Maputo.
South Africa’s Durban port, Walvis Bay in Namibia, and Mauritius are also benefiting from shipping rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, which is boosting port activity, bunkering, and maritime services.
In East Africa, Kenya is emerging as a logistics hub through Lamu Port and Nairobi, while Ethiopia is benefiting from its role as the emergency air bridge linking Asia, Africa, and Europe through Ethiopian Airlines.
These gains, however, are likely to be uneven and may not offset the wider inflationary, fiscal, and food-security pressures affecting the continent.
