The oil markets are counting down the days until the November 3 midterm elections in the US, with expectations of impending hostilities rising into next month.
Last-minute efforts to negotiate some form of de-escalation are ongoing, with both Qatar and Pakistan seeking to mediate between the Trump administration and Tehran, temporarily capping the upside for ICE Brent at $115 per barrel. Simultaneously to Hormuz tensions, the Saudi-Houthi conflict appears to be gaining self-sustaining momentum.
OPEC+ Holds the Fort on Supply Hikes. OPEC+ is expected to hold December output targets steady at its Sunday meeting, with seven core members focusing on 2027 production quotas instead after they’ve completed the roll-back of 1.65 million b/d voluntary cuts, disrupted by the Hormuz crisis.
US Moves China Shipping Fees into 2027. The US is considering extending its truce with China on port charges for Chinese-linked ships by two months to January 9, preserving a suspension of tit-for-tat fees that previously imposed millions of dollars per port call and raised freight costs.
Houthis Hit Saudi Arabia’s Largest Refinery. Yemen’s Houthis claimed a ballistic missile strike hit Saudi Arabia’s 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery, causing a fire and disrupting operations at the Middle Eastern kingdom’s largest plant, with an earlier March attack shutting it for three months.
Refining Boom Derails Galp–Moeve Merger. Portugal’s Galp and Spain’s Moeve have abandoned plans for a potential downstream merger that would’ve combined 700,000 b/d of refining capacity and 3,500 service stations, claiming that 2026 bumper profits made it harder to agree M&A terms.
Brussels Builds a European Wall Against China. The European Union may introduce quotas or tariffs on Chinese chemicals, furniture and machinery from early 2027, seeking to replicate its recent import caps on hybrid vehicles as it struggles to narrow its €360 billion trade deficit.
Singapore Launches First LNG Term Tender. Singapore’s state gas buyer GasCo launched its first-ever LNG term supply tender after neighbouring Indonesia had announced it would slash pipeline gas exports by 15% to 31 MMCf/d, just as the government plans to add 5 new gas-powered plants.
East Timor Buys Out Its Untapped Offshore Gem. Australia’s major Woodside (ASX:WDS) has agreed to sell its stakes in the Greater Sunrise fields offshore East Timor for $200 million to the island nation, leaving state oil firm Timor gap as the only stakeholder of the untapped 5.3 TCf field.
Alberta Pushes for Scrapping of Tanker Ban. The province of Alberta called on the Carney government to repeal Canada’s 2019 West Coast tanker ban that bars vessels carrying over 12,500 tonnes from loading at British Columbia ports, backing a proposed 250,000 b/d crude-by-rail route.
Indonesia Gives Up on Market-Based Imports. Indonesia plans to replace tender-based crude oil and refined product imports with government-to-government (G2G) and government-to-business (G2B) agreements to secure supplies, courting India and China for long-term supply deals.
Dangote Considers Third African Refinery. Nigeria’s Dangote conglomerate is considering building a third 700,000 b/d refinery in Africa, alongside the existing plant in Lekki and the upcoming Kenyan refinery in Lamu, whilst simultaneously investing into refined product pipelines in West Africa.
Malaysia Doubles Down on Coal. The Malaysian government has proposed extending the lifespan of its existing coal-fuelled power plants despite an earlier pledge to retire coal by 2044, with coal accounting for 56% of current generation as JKM prices jumped to $33 per MMBtu this week.
Iron Ore Plunges Again on China Demand Fears. Iron ore prices fell to their lowest since September 2024 as weak Chinese demand and wafer-thin margins are expected to curb Q4 steel consumption, sending the Dalian iron ore futures to ¥662 per tonne, below the $100 per tonne threshold.
White House to Ease Methane Emission Rules. The Trump administration is planning to relax rules on methane emissions from oil and gas operations, including exemptions for wells producing up to 15 boe/d, projecting incremental output of 210 million barrels for older and depleted wells.
Bahri Orders Three New VLCCs to Expand Tanker Fleet. Saudi national shipping company Bahri has ordered three VLCCs from domestic shipbuilder International Maritime Industries for $451 million, with deliveries scheduled in 2029-30 and marking the first attempt at exclusively Saudi shipbuilding.
UK Considers Fast-Track Approvals for Tiebacks. The UK’s Burnham government is considering the fast-tracking of a small number of oil and gas tiebacks before pending legislation creates Transitional Energy Certificates that extend existing fields but preserve the country’s exploration ban.
Oilprice.com
