Accra, Ghana//-Afrobarometer, a leading pan-African, nonpartisan survey research network has revealed that Africans prefer self-reliant development as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) opened for business on January 1, 2021.
It is promising opportunities for people from all socio-economic strata to share in economic growth in the world’s largest free-trade zone. The AfCFTA is expected to cover 54 African countries, with a combined gross domestic product of about $2.2 trillion.
According to World Bank, the AfCFTA is projected to generate increased cross-border trade and investment volumes, technology transfers, and income levels, lifting 30 million Africans out of extreme poverty by 2035.
But the survey said Africans are almost evenly divided in their views on free trade. It noted that 47% support policies that protect domestic industries, while 49% prefer open borders.
While resistance to open borders is particularly strong in Tunisia (70%), Lesotho (63%), Botswana (62%), and Gabon (60%), it indicated.
Key findings
Free trade
▪ On average across 18 countries, Africans are almost evenly divided in their views on free trade: 47% support policies that protect domestic industries, while 49% prefer open borders. o Resistance to open borders is particularly strong in Tunisia (70%), Lesotho (63%), Botswana (62%), and Gabon (60%).
▪ But a majority (58%) want their governments to allow foreign-owned retail shops in order to ensure a wide selection of low-cost consumer goods.
▪ A slim majority (55%) of Africans also support the free movement of people and goods across international borders in their region. Botswana is the only country where a clear majority (68%) prefers limiting cross-border movement in the region.
▪ Across countries, levels of support for free cross-border movement have changed considerably over time, including a 27-percentage-point increase in Lesotho and a 25-point drop in Sierra Leone since 2014/2015.
▪ On average, West and East Africans favour trade openness more than Southern Africans.
▪ In practice, only two in 10 Africans say they find it easy to cross borders for work or trade.
▪ Kenyans, Ivoirians, Burkinabè, and Gabonese are much more likely to report difficulties crossing borders than in the previous survey round (2016/2018).
▪ Across 16 countries, reports that crossing borders is difficult have increased by 9 percentage points since 2014/2015.
▪ West Africans are least likely to say it is easy to cross borders in their region.
Development assistance
▪ Almost two-thirds (64%) of Africans want their countries to finance their national development from their own resources rather than rely on external loans.
▪ A preference for development without foreign aid is the majority view in all surveyed countries except Cabo Verde, Ethiopia, and Angola.
▪ Africans are divided as to whether foreign assistance and loans should come with conditionalities.
▪ A slim majority (54%) oppose strict donor/lender requirements for how the funds can be used.
o Half (50%) do not want conditionalities requiring receiving countries to promote democracy and human rights.
▪ Despite reservations about strings attached to foreign assistance, Africans generally welcome the economic and political influence of China (59%), the United States (58%), and other powers, as well as of the African Union, the United Nations, and regional bodies.
Trade and cross-border movement
Understanding how Africans perceive economic integration is critical for implementation of the AfCFTA.
This section unpacks popular views on free trade and free movement of people for work. What emerges is a deeply divided continent, with large variations across countries.
On average, Africans are almost evenly split in their views on free trade for the sake of development. Across the 18 countries surveyed, about half (49%) say their country must open its borders to imports in order to develop, but almost as many (47%) favour limiting international trade for the sake of protecting local producers.
Support for free trade is highest in Uganda (70%), Burkina Faso (63%), and Mali (61%). But similarly strong majorities support protectionism for domestic producers in Tunisia (70%), Lesotho (63%), and Botswana (62%) (for a more detailed analysis of views in member countries of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), see Stuurman, 2020).
Emblematic of the continent, Kenyans are evenly split (49% each) on the question of free trade vs. protectionism. Even though about half of Africans want to protect domestic producers, considerably fewer (38%) want to limit their choice of consumer goods to domestic products.
Across 18 countries, a majority (58%) prefer that their government continue to permit foreigners to set up shops in the country to ensure a wide choice of low-cost consumer goods.
Gabon and Ghana are the only countries where more than half of respondents endorse limiting retail trade to their own citizens (53% and 51%, respectively).
At the other end of the spectrum, more than seven in 10 respondents favour allowing foreign traders in Malawi (74%), Cabo Verde (71%), Sierra Leone (71%), and Mali (71%).
The ability to cross international borders is important for many Africans who trade or work in neighbouring countries.
Earlier Afrobarometer research has shown that the main reasons Africans cite for wanting to emigrate are to find work and escape economic hardship, and their most preferred destination is another country within their region (Sanny, Logan, & Gyimah-Boadi, 2019).
In some countries, cross-border movement has fueled anti-immigrant and xenophobic attitudes (Human Rights Watch, 2020).
Across the 18 countries surveyed in 2019/2020, a slim majority (55%) of respondents favour free movement of people across borders for work, while four in 10 (41%) prefer limiting the cross-border movement of people and goods.
The countries whose citizens are most open to free movement across borders are Lesotho (75%) and Uganda (73%). Batswana are by far the most strongly in favour of limiting crossborder movement (68%), followed by Tunisians (49%), Gabonese (49%), Cabo Verdeans (47%), and Sierra Leoneans (47%).
On average across 16 countries surveyed regularly since 2014/2015, the preference for free movement across borders remains virtually unchanged (-1 percentage point).
However, double-digit declines in support for free movement are recorded in Sierra Leone (-25 percentage points), Burkina Faso (-16 points), Kenya (-16 points), and Guinea (-14 points).
On the other hand, three countries show double-digit increases in support for free cross-border movement: Lesotho (+27 percentage points), Namibia (+13 points), and Gabon (+11 points).
Despite mixed views on whether people should be able to cross international borders freely, most Africans are in agreement that in practice, it’s not easy to do so.
On average, twothirds (66%) of respondents say it is “difficult” or “very difficult” to cross borders to work or trade, while only one in five (21%) describe it as easy.
Citizens in francophone West and Central African countries find it most challenging to cross borders to work or trade: Gabon (82%), Mali (82%), Guinea (81%), Burkina Faso (78%), and Côte d’Ivoire (76%).
The perceived difficulty of cross-border movement is lowest in three Southern African countries – Botswana (41%), Angola (43%), and Namibia (52%) – although even there, more people say it’s difficult than say it’s easy.
Crossing borders for work or trade appears to be growing more difficult for many Africans. Across the 16 countries where this question was asked in both 2016/2018 and 2019/2020, the proportion who say that crossing borders is difficult has increased by 9 percentage points.
Sierra Leone is the only country where this perception decreased (-17 percentage points), while neighbouring Guinea records an increase (+11 points). Even larger increases are seen in Kenya (+24 points), Côte d’Ivoire (+22 points), Burkina Faso (+22 points), Gabon (+20 points), and Namibia (+18 points).
The continent’s most economically vulnerable are rendered most immobile when it comes to working or trading in other countries. Based on Afrobarometer’s Lived Poverty Index (LPI)1, the findings show that people experiencing high lived poverty are 13 percentage points more likely than those with no lived poverty to say that crossing borders is difficult (71% vs. 58%).
First, at the regional level, it is evident that in terms of “support for openness” to trade and movement – the first three indicators – overall demand is considerably higher in East and West Africa than in Southern Africa.
This is especially true when it comes to support for open trade: Southern Africans are much more inclined to support protection of local producers rather than openness to imports and trade.
Southern Africans are also less supportive of free movement across borders than their counterparts in East and West Africa.
However, Southerners equal West Africans, at levels somewhat higher than in East Africa, in their support for allowing foreign traders.
Mali stands out as the only country that scores in the highest category of support for openness on all three indicators, although Ugandans and Burkinabès are not far behind, scoring in the highest category on two indicators and falling only slightly below this level on the third. Angolans, in contrast, indicate far lower support for openness across all three indicators.
Botswana and Lesotho show more contradictory patterns. Batswana report some of the lowest levels of support for both trade and movement, alongside high support for allowing foreign traders to operate in their country.
Large numbers of Basotho reject open trade but support both accepting foreign traders and open borders. Turning from support for openness to the experience of it – i.e. the reported ease of crossing borders – the tables are turned.
No region averages more than one in four citizens who say it is easy. In West Africa, fewer than one in five (18%) respondents report that it is easy to cross borders in the region.
Views on development cooperation
A majority of Africans want to be self-reliant and control their own democratic and economic affairs. Two-thirds (64%) say their countries should finance their development from their own resources, even if it means paying more taxes. Only three in 10 (29%) want their governments to rely on external loans to finance national development.
The desire for development without foreign aid is the majority view in 15 of the 18 countries surveyed, including three-fourths of citizens in Gabon (82%), Tunisia (78%), and Mali (77%).
The only countries where fewer than half of all citizens prefer self-reliance over external assistance are Cabo Verde (42%), Ethiopia (47%), and Angola (49%).
On average, a slight majority (54%) say foreign donors or lenders should allow governments to make their own decisions about how to use the resources rather than applying strict conditions about how the resources may be used.
But a significant minority (42%) prefers such strict requirements. Pluralities reject strict requirements from lenders in 14 of 18 countries, including large majorities in Tunisia (70%) and Burkina Faso (63%). Malawians are evenly split on the question (49% each).
There is (narrow) majority support for conditionality only in Lesotho (51%), Gabon (54%), and Sierra Leone (52%).
While Angola is among the countries with the least support for the government to take its own decisions (43%), it also records the largest proportion of citizens who agree with neither of the views or “don’t know” (34%).
Africans are more closely divided on whether donors and lenders should make sure that countries receiving assistance promote democracy and respect human rights, though there is slightly more tolerance for conditionality based on these factors than on spending requirements.
On average, half (50%) want their governments to be free to make their own decisions on democracy and human rights, while almost as many (45%) want assistance to come with these strings attached.
As on the question of conditionality for how resources are used, Tunisians (67%) and Burkinabè (62%) are most insistent on letting their governments take their own decisions.
In contrast, a substantial majority in Gabon (64%) prefer democracy/human rights-based conditionality, as do a majority in Sierra Leone (57%) and pluralities in Côte d’Ivoire, Malawi, Namibia, Cabo Verde, and Angola.
Whose influence is welcome?
International organizations and foreign powers may exert political and economic influence in Africa not just through loans or development assistance, but also through other types of economic investment and engagement and the way they wield their political influence. Do Africans in general appreciate the influence of these external actors, or resist it?
Africans’ perceptions of external power brokers are far more often positive than negative. About six in 10 consider the influence of China (59%) and the United States (58%) to be positive, vs. just 15% and 13%, respectively.
Around half welcome the influence of their country’s regional superpower (South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, or Algeria) (49%) and former colonial power (Britain, France, Portugal, or Germany) (47%).
Russia’s influence is less often seen in a favourable light (38%), although a plurality do not offer an opinion in either direction and only a small minority (16%) express a negative view.
Perceptions of development agencies and regional bodies are also predominantly positive: 50% positive vs. 13% negative for the African Union (AU), 54% vs. 11% for United Nations agencies, and 55% vs. 11% for the primary regional organizations (Southern African Development Community (SADC), Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), East African Community (EAC), Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), and Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)).
Substantial proportions (ranging from 26% to 45%) of respondents did not provide a positive or negative assessment of these external influences, saying “Neither positive nor negative” or “Don’t know” or refusing to answer the question.
Ethiopia is the only surveyed country that rates the positive influence of the AU higher than that of its regional organization, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) (50% vs. 44%).
Most of the countries rate their regional organizations more positively, with the largest gaps recorded in Lesotho (16 percentage points), Botswana (11 points), and Tunisia (11 points). The ratings are about equal for both organizations in Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Ghana, and Malawi.
Views on the influence of superpowers and former colonial powers vary greatly across countries. China’s influence gets its most positive ratings in Cabo Verde (85%), Guinea (80%), Mali (80%), and Burkina Faso (80%), while the U.S. is most welcome in Cabo Verde (86%), Guinea (75%), Kenya (72%), and Burkina Faso (71%).
Russia gets majority favourable assessments in just three countries – Guinea (64%), Mali (56%), and Burkina Faso (55%) – while most other majorities were neutral rather than negative.
The influence of the regional superpower is most welcome in Tunisia (72%, referring to Algeria) and Namibia (68%, referring to South Africa) and least welcome in Ghana (21%, referring to Nigeria).
More than eight in 10 Cabo Verdeans (85%) see the influence of their former colonial power as positive, but only one in four Gabonese (25%) share this view.
The survey also shows interesting country patterns. Generally, Cabo Verdeans have high regard for external powers except for their regional superpower (Nigeria) and Russia, but none of the external influences receive highly positive ratings in Angola.
Tunisians share low positive ratings (16%-36%) for all external influences except Algeria as the regional superpower (72%).
In Ghana, Malawi, Sierra Leone, Uganda, and Ethiopia, positive assessments of external influences generally range from low to moderate.
In 11 of the 18 countries, the popular preference is strongest for the U.S. model. In Sierra Leone, Ethiopia, Kenya, Cabo Verde, and Uganda, the U.S is preferred by at least four in 10 citizens, while China receives its highest marks in Burkina Faso (39%) and Mali (38%).
In Tunisia, the model of the former colonial power (Algeria) gets the most votes (25%), while the U.S. and China tie at 19% each.
As the former colonial power, France also rates well in Guinea (23%) and Côte d’Ivoire (21%), although the U.S. and China score higher. South Africa’s model largely outranks the U.S. and China in the neighbouring countries of Namibia (38%), Botswana (29%), Lesotho (28%), and Malawi (27%).
Bottom line
The AfCFTA may hold the potential to unlock local development opportunities through an inclusive free market. However, the success of the AfCFTA will depend on the ease of crossborder trade in goods and services, as well as the potential benefits to ordinary Africans.
Africans across 18 countries are roughly evenly divided on the question of opening borders to trade vs. closing them to protect local producers.
So negative or uncertain attitudes toward trade may still be a serious impediment to the AfCFTA, especially in those countries (such as Tunisia, Lesotho, and Botswana) where protectionist sentiments are strongest.
But the concrete realities of moving goods and people across borders will also be critical, and there is much work to be done here.
Currently, two-thirds of Africans across 18 countries face difficulties moving around their region, including for work, and the situation has gotten substantially worse in the past few years.
This is despite the fact that more than half (55%) of Africans support the free movement of people and goods across borders.
Policies aimed at easing regulations and reforming border control, with specific attention to promoting agency for Africans living on the fringes of economic inclusion, will be vital to the success of a free trade area.
Perceptions of fostering interconnectedness vary greatly between countries, highlighting local dynamics that underpin the facilitation of the AfCFTA.
Perhaps one way to address this is the establishment of regional autonomous oversight bodies that assess domestic challenges and put forward recommendations that help overcome local and regional barriers to the success of the AfCFTA.
Deepening interconnectedness as a means of entrenching peace and building self-reliant nations requires broad access to the free trade area for regular Africans.
Otherwise, the AfCFTA will fail to take advantage of the labour, skills, and knowledge of the very populations that will determine its success.
African Eye Report
