Recent polling suggests Kenya’s Deputy President William Ruto has reached the ceiling of his popularity. Will Raila Odinga catch him? Ruto’s presidential bid garnered momentum in 2021 following the unveiling of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
However, Ruto faces several hurdles that could make or break his historical run, a defining moment for Kenyan politics.
On the road with William Ruto
In 2021, Ruto traversed the country popularising the UDA, which made him the most discussed politician in Kenya. A poll by TIFA Research in November 2021 showed that Ruto was the most preferred presidential candidate at 38% followed by Raila Odinga at 23%.
According to the poll, Raila’s rating jumped from 8% in June, while Ruto’s largely remained the same. Ruto’s popularity seemed to have reached a plateau, provoking a review of strategy.
He began to castigate Raila, painting him as a master of electoral disputes. “These are your last days. You [Raila] committed treason in swearing yourself in and now you pretend you can threaten us.”
Defining the message
Ruto accused his opponents of lacking a plan for the elections. “Get your candidate first, stop this idling and time wastage and then you will claim that the election has been stolen,” Ruto told a campaign meeting in Bungoma on 4 November.
At the time, Musalia Mudavadi had been attending meetings with Raila, Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper Party), Gideon Moi (KANU) and Moses Wetangula (Ford Kenya) at the invitation of President Uhuru Kenyatta.
“Those five or six men are stuck, every day they have a meeting,” Ruto said. “Get off […] the president’s back. Come face me and I will deal with you.”
Three months later, Raila has crafted a new movement under ‘Azimio la Umoja’, while Musyoka, Mudavadi, Wetangula and Moi are yet to decide on their fate within the One Kenya Alliance (OKA), a political outfit registered by the Wiper Party in early 2021.
The OKA factor
Mudavadi has been non-committal on his future within OKA, with Ruto indicating possible talks. “Even as I speak to Musalia Mudavadi, […] I am promoting [the] UDA party,” Ruto told Citizen TV in December 2021. “You haven’t heard me telling anyone to join [the] ANC party then come to [the] UDA.”
Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala, Mudavadi’s close associate, has also been associating with Ruto. “If Mudavadi comes to look for friends here in Uasin Gishu and […] finds this friend called hustler (Ruto), is it a mistake?” said Malala during a political rally hosted by Ruto in Eldoret on 8 January.
Is building alliances a Ruto strength?
Ruto continues to lure his would-be supporters to the UDA, a move that is ruffling feathers. “He has […] said that if you want to work with him you have to join the ‘only’ national party, which is [the] UDA… I’m not boarding, in terms of folding parties, I’m not boarding,” Moses Kuria told Citizen TV in November 2021. Ruto denies the claim, saying he only wants to build the UDA.
Meanwhile, the Senate is considering a Bill that would enable the formation of coalition political parties, which can field candidates under an umbrella group. Ruto is opposed to this, claiming it’s a ploy by Raila and Kenyatta to craft a political vehicle for the former.
The Bill may compel or make it possible for Ruto to form alliances with the UDA and other political parties, but it is the terms of agreement that will be the real test.
“We will have an option to choose between fielding separate candidates or a joint coalition ticket,” Malala said. “It depends [on] the negotiations […]: whether we get into negotiation with [the] UDA or Azimio (la Umoja).”
Taming public gaffes
Another headache for Ruto is the growing perception of intolerance. Meru Senator Mithika Linturi was recently arraigned for suspected hate speech at a rally in Eldoret. He had called on voters to reject politicians outside the UDA in the next election. “I plead with you, that you remove the madoadoa [Swahili for dirty spots] among you,” Linturi said.
“We cannot be standing with William [Ruto] in Mt. Kenya…while back here you have some who are not […] with him. Get rid of them.” Linturi has since been charged and released on bail.
Madoadoa has a negative connotation. It has been used in past elections to incite locals against persons not native to their areas of residence.
Politics of violence
When rowdy youths disrupted Ruto’s Nairobi campaign tour on 16 January, Ruto claimed Raila was the mastermind. “You [are] the master of violence,” he said.
“You want to tell us you are interested in the unity of our nation, these young people you are using to throw stones, they are only available for you for the next six months. After that they won’t be available because we will give them jobs and make them (earn) from their sweat.”
During the chaotic event, police officers fired teargas, as some vehicles were stoned, including a media van from a local media house.
Raila’s team responded to Ruto, accusing him of engineering the violence. “It is not beyond Ruto to sponsor the disruption of his own rally so that he can have an excuse to start ethnic cleansing back at home,” the Raila Odinga Secretariat said in a statement.
Party primaries test
The next big test for Ruto will be at the party primaries. The electoral commission expects political parties to conclude their nominations by 22 April. A week-long window that opens on 16 April has the leadership of top political parties worried.
In April 2017, Ruto took over the management of Jubilee Party nominations following a false start that saw most of the polling stations report missing materials and incomplete voter registers.
Several popular candidates found their names missing in the final list and blamed Ruto. “There was a feeling that DP William Ruto was looking at his foot soldiers for 2022,” Isaac Mwaura, a nominated Jubilee party senator, said in November 2020. “[…] it was said that he actually pushed through people that he would have wanted to stand with him in 2022.”
Some who lost in the nominations ran as independent candidates, taking away a significant number of votes, but most did not win the polls.
Meru County MP Maoka Maore, Kenyatta’s ally, agrees that the challenges were designed rather than coincidental. “Most of the popular and credible candidates are out, and the people that the DP (Ruto) wanted are in.”
Lessons from 2017
Ruto says he will be at the centre of the party primaries. “I will take personal responsibility,” he said in December 2021. “[…] I have the experience, the knowledge (and) the understanding because I have run these nominations for the last 25 years.”
In Rift Valley and Mt. Kenya, aspirants are weary of what awaits them at the primaries. Kirinyaga County Woman Rep Purity Ngirichi had been at the forefront popularising UDA, but ditched Ruto’s party after he embraced her fiercest rival – Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, who decamped from the Kenyatta-Raila political formation in October 2021. Ngirichi wanted to run for Kirinyaga’s governorship on a UDA ticket.
“When I appeared at the (UDA) headquarters, the officials tried to convince me to give up my gubernatorial ambitions and vie for the Mwea parliamentary seat on a UDA ticket,” Ngirichi said in December 2021.
The hunt for good candidates
Ruto is already defining befitting candidates. “You don’t reward a friend with a party ticket if they are not the popular candidate. They will lose the election.”
The coming months will be critical for Ruto. It’s a delicate gamble as he strives to please loyalists by keeping his promise within the UDA, while forming alliances that will turn his monopolistic approach to a campaign layered in decision-making, with his gaze firmly glued on the prize.
The Africa Report
