Accra, Ghana//-The Global InfoAnalytics a leading independent research company in Ghana has explained in its latest exit poll on why the parliamentary candidate of the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) in the Assin North constituency by-election lost to the candidate of the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate.
At the close of the election day, officials of the Electoral Commission (EC) declared James Gyakye Quayson of the NDC as the winner of the hotly contested election.
Mr Quayson who was ejected from Parliament in May 2023 following a Supreme Court decision annulling the 2020 constituency election, won the closely contested by-election with an overwhelming 17,245 votes representing 57.56% of valid votes.
His main contender, Charles Opoku of the NPP polled 12,630 or 42.15% of valid votes to place second, while Liberal Party of Ghana’s Bernice Enam Sefanu polled only 87 votes or 0.29%. With a turnout of 74.23%, officials of the EC indicated that the turnout was very high.
Explaining on his Facebook page why the massive defeat despite overnight development projects embarked by the NPP government coupled with record voter inducements, Executive Director of the Global InfoAnalytics, Musaa Dankwah noted that the final poll before the elections suggested 35% of likely voters were governing NPP , while 42% were the opposition NDC and 13% were floating voters.
However, on the election day, 43% of voters were NPP, increase of 8% while the 54% were NDC, an increase of 12%, 4% enthusiasm gap advantage the NDC. Floating voters, where Charles was doing well in the poll, did not bother to show up, only 2% of the 13% showed up, according to him.
He added that young voters between 18-24 and 25-34 which NPP’s Charles Opoku was winning by average of 11% and constituted the largest voting bloc did not bother to show up to vote and those who showed up ended voting for the NDC’s James Gyakye Quayson (JGQ) by landslide, 23% margin. The reliable older voters also show increase in their turnout compared to the final poll and they voted massively for JGQ, winning by 10.25% margin.
He also revealed that; “James Gyakey Quayson won the Akan votes by 10% margin compared to the final poll, which showed him leading by just 3% margin. The Ewe votes which Charles was leading by 16% turn out to be a loss of 12% margin”.
37% of Assin North voters said the overnight projects made them vote for the government while 46% said they made them vote against the government with further 17% saying they did not influence their vote, Mr Dankwah further explained.
“On the question of whether voters witnessed any incidents of vote buying such as cash, farm tools, bicycles, motorbikes, 96% of voters said yes they witnessed it while 4% did not. On whether voters had personally benefited from such inducements, during the campaign or election day, 92% said yes, they got some of the inducement while 8% said they did not.
72% of voters said they received inducements from both NPP and NDC, while 15% said they received theirs from the NPP and 13% said they got it from the NDC”.
However, the poll shows that, of those voters who received inducements from both the NPP and NDC, 61% voted for James Gyekye Quayson (NDC) and 39% voted for Charles Opoku (NPP). For the who received inducement from the NDC, 73% voted for Gyakye Quayson while 29% voted for Charles Opoku. But for those who got their inducement from the NPP, only 58% voted for Charles Opoku while 42% voted for James Gyakye Quayson.
The poll according to him, also shows that voters who thought the government was persecuting Gyakye Quayson, 94% voted for Gyakye Quayson while 6% voted for Charles Opoku. For those who did not like the level of vote buying in the constituency, 81% voted for James Gyakye Quayson while 18% voted for Charles.
Lesson learnt
The executive director observed that vote buying posed as a negative return on investment in swing constituencies. “Voters took the inducement from both parties but the NDC benefited from the backlash and they won votes from people who took more from the NPP. If you are supported by younger voters, be very afraid, they are unreliable”.
