FocusEconomics: Energy Prices Will Decline Next Year

Oil and gas

December 5, 2018//-Energy experts at FocusEconomics, a leading provider of economic analysis and forecasts for 127 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas have revealed that energy prices will fall next year.

According to them, energy prices will decline to 3.2% in Q4 2019 compared to the same period of 2018 (previous edition: -4.4% year-on-year), likely due to softer global demand and stronger oil supply from the U.S. A potential supply cut by OPEC and non- OPEC oil producers and the future of Iranian oil output are key risks to the outlook.

“Our panel of analysts expects energy prices to be fairly flat in Q4 2020 in annual terms, inching down 0.6%”, according to the January 2019 edition of the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast – Commodities

Base Metals
“Our panel of analysts see base metal prices rising 6.2% year-on-year in Q4 2019 (previous edition: +3.8% yoy), on solid demand from China. The evolution of the U.S.-China trade spat—which cooled in early December with the announcement of a truce between the two nations—is a key risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect base metal prices to expand 2.4% year-on-year in Q4 2020”.

Precious Metals
FocusEconomics panelists see precious metal prices rising 5.0% in Q4 2019 compared to the same period of 2018 (previous edition: +4.6% year-on-year). Our panelists expect the upward trend to continue in the following year, and see prices 4.0% higher in Q4 2020 in annual terms.

The Consensus Forecast projects agriculture prices to increase 10.5% year-on-year in Q4 2019 (previous edition: +4.2% yoy) on solid food demand thanks to the world’s growing middle class. In the following year, agricultural prices are set to continue rising, with FocusEconomics panelists expecting a 4.3% increase in Q4 2020 in annual terms.
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