Barcelona, Spain, May 13, 2020//-FocusEconomics today announce the winners of the 2020 Analyst Forecast Awards.
The Awards recognize the most accurate forecasters for the main macroeconomic indicators across 89 countries and 22 commodity prices in 2019.
Details of the awards and the list of winners are available at: www.focus-economics.com/awards.
To identify the top economic forecasters, FocusEconomics assessed the accuracy of the forecasts submitted by over 350 institutions to its Consensus Forecast survey over the course of 22 months. Among the winning institutions are the world’s most renowned international banks and economic research firms, with Capital Economics and the Economist Intelligence Unit topping the list with 54 and 35 first place rankings respectively.
FocusEconomics warmly congratulates the winning analysts for their high-quality research and for having provided the most accurate forecasts.
“The FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards demonstrate the outstanding work of the 1,200 economists on our panel. Each year, we are delighted to recognize the most accurate forecasts for the key macroeconomic indicators and commodities provided by the institutions that participate in our Consensus Forecast”, says Arne Pohlman, Chief Economist and Managing Director at FocusEconomics.
Awards Methodology
The FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards are yearly awards that recognize the most accurate economic forecasters for the key macroeconomic indicators in 89 countries and for 22 commodities.
“We assess the accuracy of the forecasts submitted to our Consensus Forecast survey by ranking forecasters according to the average of their forecast errors. Errors are defined as the absolute difference between an individual forecast and the actual result of the macroeconomic indicator/price of the commodity”.
To identify the best forecasters, we analyze forecasts submitted to our monthly survey over the course of 22 months. For example, in assessing the forecast accuracy for 2019 GDP, we take into consideration forecasts collected between January 2018 and October 2019.
The outturns we use as a comparison to the forecasts correspond to the first official estimates, the release of which varies according to the frequency of the indicator.
The absolute error (absolute difference between the individual forecast and the outturn of the price) is not discounted. Therefore, an error at the beginning of our forecasting cycle (January 2018) has the same weight as an error at the end of the cycle (October 2019).
Finally, panelists are ranked according to the average of the absolute errors over the last 22 months: The highest ranked analyst is the one with the lowest average error. In case of equal scores panelists will be ranked based on the number of submissions.
To be considered for the award, the panelist must have submitted a minimum number of forecasts over the given period.
We calculate forecast accuracy rankings for six main macroeconomic indicators (GDP, Fiscal Balance, Inflation, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Current Account) in 89 countries.
In addition to giving awards for each specific macroeconomic indicator mentioned above, we also provide a general ranking of the forecasts for the country, which is estimated by calculating weighted average ranking across all the indicators, with GDP and inflation assigned slightly greater weight than the remaining indicators.
Note on the Methodology for Commodities
To identify the best forecasters of commodity prices, we use price forecasts submitted to our monthly survey for 22 commodities over the course of 22 months compared to the resulting average-of-year commodity price.
The absolute error (absolute difference between the individual forecast and the outturn of the price) is not discounted. Therefore, an error at the beginning of our forecasting cycle (January 2018) has the same weight as an error at the end of the cycle (October 2019).
Finally, panelists are ranked according to the average of the absolute errors over the last 22 months: The highest ranked analyst is the one with the lowest average error. In case of equal scores panelists will be ranked based on the number of submissions.
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