Oil prices are set to record one of the steepest weekly losses in recent memory, with ICE Brent sliding a hefty 15% week-on-week to $99 per barrel on expectations of US-Iran diplomatic progress and a weakening window of opportunity for the Trump administration to continue hostilities in the Middle East.
Whilst talk of a global supply glut might be a little premature – after all, Iranian drone and missile attacks continue unabated in the Hormuz – the general sentiment has definitely shifted towards bearishness.
Constrained by Gulf Shipping, Aramco Slashes Asia OSPs. Saudi national oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) slashed its December OSPs for all Asian grades by a uniform $2 per barrel, setting its flagship grade Arab Light at a $7 discount against Dubai/Oman, the lowest pricing level since June 2020.
Washington Widens Its Iran Sanctions Net to India and Turkey. The US Treasury slapped sanctions on Indian and Turkish individuals and companies accused of supplying false flags and certifications to vessels carrying Iranian petroleum, ratcheting up pressure on Iran despite a wider geopolitical easing.
UAE Weighs a Third Route Around Hormuz. The UAE’s national oil firm ADNOC is reportedly looking to build a third west-to-east pipeline, carrying third-party crude from other Middle Eastern producers to Fujairah, expanding the UAE’s regional clout as it seeks to launch its second pipeline in Q1 2027.
India Makes Storage the Missing Link in Its Renewable Boom. The Indian government has vowed to pledge $1.5 billion in subsidies to help build 92 GW of energy storage capacity, with financial help running through 2031 as Delhi seeks to better integrate its 230 GW of existing solar and wind capacity.
Colombia Reopens the Door to Oil Exploration. Colombia’s new president Abelardo De La Espriella is seeking to hold the country’s next hydrocarbon licensing round in 2027, reversing a moratorium on new exploration introduced by previous president Gustavo Petro in a bid for greater energy self-sufficiency.
Russia’s Fuel Subsidies Spiral Out of Control. Russian authorities paid 415 billion rubles ($5.1 billion) in subsidies to its refiners last month, October, marking the highest payouts since April 2022, as Moscow compensated downstream producers for selling their products domestically rather than exporting them.
Qatar Turns to US LNG to Escape Its Hormuz Exposure. QatarEnergy is seeking another 3–6 mtpa of US LNG after securing 4 million and 3 million tonnes from Cheniere (NYSE:LNG) and Woodside (ASX:WDS) respectively, greatly expanding its trading portfolio to hedge against potential disruptions in the Gulf.
China’s Copper Crunch Is All About Missing Metal. Shanghai spot premiums for copper reached a five-year high of ¥2,100 per tonne ($315/t) as the ratcheting up of domestic smelter curtailments, limited Russian and African supply, and US-bound trade flows have all depleted available copper cathodes.
Italy Moves to Break Gas’s Grip on Power Prices. Italy’s Meloni government is set to approve changes to the country’s energy bill, allowing Rome to reimburse power utilities when European gas prices exceed €58.90/MWh (now €86/MWh), seeking to limit fuel cost pass-through into wholesale electricity.
Europe Postpones Methane Reporting into 2028. EU members have agreed to delay the bloc’s methane rules until 2028, staving off fears that rules requiring oil, gas and coal importers to report methane emissions disrupts existing trade flows, with scope for two further annual postponements.
Brazil Keeps Crude at Home as Trade Tensions Rise. Brazil’s Trade Ministry extended its 12% oil export tax through year-end 2026 to protect domestic diesel supply and fund consumer subsidies amid the US-Iran conflict, while simultaneously launching a process to levy retaliatory measures against US tariffs.
Indonesia’s Mining Crackdown Sends Nickel Higher. Nickel reached a five-week high with the benchmark LME three-month contract jumping to $16,400 per tonne after Indonesia’s government
targeted firms linked to ex-Glencore trader Arif Kurniawan over alleged forest and licensing violations.
Australia’s Key Gas Project Stalls Under Rising Costs. The $700 million Golden Beach Energy project, one of the largest natural gas projects in the state of Victoria, has entered administration citing delays and soaring costs, rendering gas shortages much more likely in eastern Australia from 2028 onwards.
US Upstream M&A Climbs Higher in Q3. U.S. upstream M&A activity rose to $12.6 billion in Q3, according to intelligence firm Enverus, lifting the total of 2026 transactions to $80.5 billion, with private-to-public deals accounting for roughly two-thirds of disclosed value amidst a wider shale consolidation.
Thin Stocks Restrict China’s November Diesel Exports. China’s November diesel exports may fall below 800,000 tons (some 200,000 b/d), the lowest since July, as domestic stocks of middle distillates remain below seasonal norms after refiners shipped a record 500,000 b/d out of the country in September.
Colombia’s Sirius Gas Project Delayed. Colombia’s largest gas discovery on record, the 6 TCf Sirius offshore project is reportedly delayed to 2031 as partners Ecopetrol and Petrobras navigate mandatory prior consultations with local ethnic communities despite Colombia’s 40% import dependence.
Oilprice.com
