Things are not looking good for oil, with Trump’s belligerent rhetoric vis-à-vis Venezuela only pushing ICE Brent futures to $60 per barrel after a slide below that psychological threshold earlier in the week.
Sanctions against Russia or threats thereof have by now, desensitised the market towards Russian supply risks, once again demonstrated by the lack of price movements after Ukraine targeted another shadow fleet tanker in the Mediterranean. Against this background, oil could easily end the year below $60.
IEA Lowers 2026 Oversupply Forecast. Trump Launches Full Blockade of Venezuela. US President Trump has ordered a ‘complete blockade’ of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, ratcheting up pressure after the seizure of the Skipper VLCC, even though PDVSA loadings remain around 800,000 b/d so far in December.
Ukraine Strikes Russia’s Shadow Fleet Tanker. Ukrainian drones have struck an Oman-flagged shadow fleet tanker used in Russia’s oil exports in the southern part of the Mediterranean Sea, some 1,250 miles from Ukraine, with the Baltic Sea-bound vessel sustaining critical damage, according to media reports.
Brazil’s Upstream Roiled by Petrobras Strike. Brazil’s trade union FUP has been gradually extending its strike over retirement fund payments and wage demands, now impacting Petrobras’ (NYSE:PBR) offshore oil platforms just as the country’s output posted an all-time high of 4.03 million b/d in October.
Pemex Fails to Attract Oil Majors. Mexico’s state oil firm Pemex has awarded five of the 11 JV contracts it anticipated to sign, attracting private companies to bolster production at mature oil fields, however weak bidding and the lack of foreign participation will only allow for an output lift of 75,000 b/d.
Israel Approves Giant Egypt Gas Deal (At Last). The Israeli government has approved a $35 billion natural gas supply deal with Egypt from the Leviathan gas field, initially signed in September however held up by Tel Aviv for more than three months over alleged 1979 peace treaty violations by Egypt.
IEA Sees Coal Demand Plateauing in 2025. The International Energy Agency stated that global coal demand has reached a plateau as they expect supply to trend flat around 9.1 billion tonnes, claiming China will curb its consumption of coal from 2026 onwards as it already started to cut back on imports.
US Allows Sakhalin Sales for the Next 6 Months. The US Treasury Department has extended a waiver allowing oil sales from Russia’s Sakhalin-2 project through 18 June 2026, a critical move for its Northeast Asian ally Japan as it sources 9% of its LNG needs from the Gazprom-operated project.
BP CEO Resigns as the Major’s Succession Collapses. UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) has announced the abrupt departure of its CEO Murray Auchincloss and the hiring of Meg O’Neill from Woodside Energy as their next chief executive, the first external hire for the post of BP CEO in more than a century.
Mali’s Gold Supply Returns to Normal. Canadian miner Barrick Mining has officially resumed operational control over the Loulo-Gounkoto mine in Mali, ending two years of negotiations that saw several arrests and led to Barrick agreeing to a settlement of $430 million under Mali’s new mining code.
Lake Charles LNG Hits the Emergency Brake. US midstream giant Energy Transfer (NYSE:ET) has suspended the development of its 16.5 mtpa Lake Charles LNG project in Louisiana, saying it would rather ‘focus on allocating capital to its backlog of natural gas pipeline infrastructure projects’.
US Passes Bill to Expedite Huge Energy Projects. The US House of Representatives approved a bill this week that would speed up environmental reviews and government permitting for large energy infrastructure projects and data centers, the first notable amendment to the 1969 Nixon-era NEPA Act.
Trump Tightens the Noose Around Iranian Oil. The US Department of Treasury sanctioned another 29 tankers and their management firms for alleged transportation of Iranian petroleum products, taking the total of sanctioned ships to more than 180 since Trump returned to office in January 2025.
Libya’s Oil Firms Sell Oil in Defiance of State. Libyan upstream companies have started to sell their crude directly to Western buyers, bypassing the central government and state oil firm NOC, using a Gaddafi-era legal clause that allows ad hoc sales in case they’re used to cover ‘special funding needs’.
Oilprice.com
