Unless the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is renewed, African exporters of agricultural products and light manufactures could face shrinking market access to the United States, undermining prospects for diversification.
Since its launch in May 2000, AGOA has supported sub-Saharan African exports to the US through preferential access. However, the recent expiry of the scheme would threaten export diversification and industrialization across the continent.
In a country like Lesotho, for instance, approximately one third of exports are tied to AGOA, predominantly in the apparel sector, which employs between 30,000 and 40,000 workers, primarily women.
African and non-African exporters are already facing increased trade barriers in the US market. Country- and sector-specific tariffs that have been introduced by the US since April 2025 have increased tariffs for the average AGOA country from below 0.5% to 10%. For key exports, such as agriculture and food products, metals, machinery and transportation, textiles and apparel, they have already triggered a double-digit increase in duties.
The expiry of AGOA would disproportionately affect Africa’s light-manufacturing exports to the US, namely apparel and agro-food products, such as fish and dried fruits. Without AGOA’s preferential treatment, the 32 countries that received preferences until September 2025 would face a second wave of tariff increases as country-specific and sectoral tariffs would be added on top of most-favoured nation (MFN) rates, instead of the current preferential treatment under AGOA. Due to varying tariff rates and exceptions for sensitive raw materials, African exports of agricultural goods and manufactured products would be subject to tariffs that are 2-to-3 times higher than those applied on fuels and minerals.
Exporters of mined commodities are the least affected by the US tariff changes on African goods. Countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria or Angola—whose exports are primarily fuels and minerals—face minimal tariff increases, as their main exports already benefit from low MFN tariffs, or exemptions from additional duties. More diversified economies, such as South Africa, are less exposed to AGOA’s expiry but have already experienced significant tariff increases this year due to country-specific and sectoral tariffs.
AGOA’s expiry could further hinder Africa’s industrialization and export diversification. Since most US imports from AGOA-eligible countries already consists of fuels, metals, and agricultural raw materials, the end of the trade pact could further exacerbate commodity dependence. Labor-intensive sectors, like apparel and agriculture, could be disproportionately affected, with negative repercussions not only on export diversification, but also on poverty reduction and women’s employment. The case of Madagascar – whose AGOA eligibility was suspended between 2009 and 2015 following a coup – illustrates the risks involved.
If AGOA is not renewed, nine African countries will face an average US tariff of 15% or more—up from just three today. Small exporters specializing in apparel and agricultural products, such as Lesotho, Kenya, Cabo Verde, Madagascar and the United Republic of Tanzania, would be among the most affected, with average trade-weighted tariffs doubling to 20% or higher. This would imply that African exports to the US could face higher tariffs than those from many developed countries. As such, it would be at odds with the commitment to support developing countries’ integration into the global market.
Tariff increases by AGOA-eligible country
African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)
| Country | AGOA exports | Tariffs | Sectors explaining the difference of the AGOA expiry (share in %) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lesotho | 1.1% |
0.0
|
15.0
|
31.7
|
0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Kenya | 4.2% |
0.1
|
9.7
|
27.6
|
1% | 0% | 99% | 0% | 0% |
| Cabo Verde | 0.0% |
0.3
|
10.1
|
25.8
|
100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Madagascar | 2.7% |
0.0
|
11.8
|
23.2
|
1% | 0% | 97% | 0% | 3% |
| Tanzania, United Rep. | 0.7% |
0.0
|
9.3
|
19.7
|
3% | 0% | 96% | 0% | 2% |
| Mauritius | 0.8% |
0.0
|
14.9
|
18.7
|
8% | 1% | 84% | 1% | 7% |
| Malawi | 0.2% |
0.0
|
15.0
|
17.6
|
100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Eswatini | 0.1% |
0.2
|
10.5
|
15.9
|
20% | 0% | 77% | 1% | 2% |
| Botswana | 0.0% |
0.0
|
15.0
|
15.0
|
0% | 1% | – | 15% | 84% |
| South Africa | 29.3% |
0.7
|
13.9
|
14.7
|
17% | 10% | 0% | 57% | 15% |
| Sao Tome and Principe | 0.0% |
0.8
|
12.7
|
13.9
|
72% | 1% | – | 27% | 0% |
| Guinea-Bissau | 0.0% |
2.0
|
13.0
|
13.8
|
– | – | 0% | 0% | 100% |