There will be clear winners and losers across global stock markets should the US and Iran reach a peace deal this weekend, affirms the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.
The comments from deVere Group’s Nigel Green come as a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon takes hold, oil prices retreat from recent highs, and global equities push toward the end of the week on a firmer footing, buoyed by expectations that diplomacy between Washington and Tehran could accelerate.
He says, “Markets are already moving ahead of the outcome. Investors are positioning for a scenario in which tensions ease, energy flows stabilise, and global growth expectations improve.
“If a deal materialises this weekend, the rotation across sectors will be swift and decisive.”
Global equities have shown resilience throughout the conflict. The S&P 500 has continued to print record closes, supported by strong earnings and confidence that disruption will be contained.
The FTSE 100 is sitting within striking distance of its own peak, while Asian markets are on track for a second consecutive week of gains despite a softer tone at the end of the week.
At the same time, oil has pulled back below $100 a barrel following the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, with Brent trading around the high-$90s after briefly pushing above $100 earlier in the week.
Even after the recent dip, prices remain sharply higher than the roughly $60 levels seen at the start of the year, reflecting months of supply disruption linked to instability in the Gulf and constraints around the Strait of Hormuz.
Nigel Green says the next phase hinges on whether diplomatic momentum translates into a formal agreement.
He says: “Energy markets will be the first and most obvious casualty of a peace deal. Oil prices have been carrying a significant geopolitical premium. Remove that, and prices fall. That immediately reshapes the outlook for energy producers, particularly those that have benefited from constrained supply and elevated margins.”
He continues: “Oil majors and energy exporters have outperformed during the conflict. A sustained move lower in crude prices would pressure revenues and earnings expectations across the sector. Investors need to recognise how quickly sentiment can reverse here.”
Attention, he argues, should shift toward sectors that benefit from lower input costs and improving economic visibility.
He says: “Industrials, transport, and consumer-facing businesses stand to gain. Lower energy costs feed directly into margins and spending power.
“Airlines, logistics firms, and manufacturers would see immediate relief. Consumer discretionary also strengthens as inflationary pressure eases.”
Financials could also see renewed momentum.
He says: “Banks and broader financial stocks benefit from a more stable macro backdrop. Reduced geopolitical stress supports lending activity, capital markets, and investor confidence. Risk appetite broadens, and that feeds into the sector.”
Tech and growth stocks, already a dominant force in US markets, could extend their lead.
The deVere CEO explains: “A clearer global outlook reinforces the case for tech. Capital continues to flow toward companies driving earnings growth and innovation.
“Lower volatility and stable rate expectations create a supportive environment for these names.”
Yet he warns that markets may be underestimating the speed and scale of any adjustment.
He says, “Positioning has been built around a prolonged period of uncertainty. A confirmed peace deal forces a rapid shift. Capital moves quickly out of defensive and commodity-linked assets and into sectors tied to expansion and consumption.”
Geography will also matter.
“Emerging markets, particularly those sensitive to energy imports, would benefit significantly. Lower oil prices improve trade balances and reduce inflation pressure. Equity markets in these regions could see strong inflows.”
Meanwhile, regions and economies that have relied heavily on elevated commodity prices may face headwinds.
“Commodity-linked markets lose a key support. Currency strength tied to high energy prices could unwind, and equity performance may soften as earnings expectations are revised.”
The broader takeaway, Nigel Green concludes, is that investors are entering a pivotal moment.
“A US-Iran deal would mark a clear inflexion point. The winners and losers will become apparent very quickly.”
