Accra, Ghana, December 9, 2019//-Latest Afrobarometer survey has revealed that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) will win in five out of the six newly created regions in the upcoming presidential election.
According to the survey, majority of people in regions such as Ahafo (33%), North East (49%), Savannah (49%), Bono East (38%), and Oti (47%) said they will vote for the NDC.
While the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) will win in the Western North Region with 35% votes as against 13% for the NDC.
The NPP will have 30%, 33%, 29%, 25% and 19% votes from Ahafo, Noth East, Savannah, Bono East and Oti regions respectively.
The survey also indicated that in the newly created regions, some sizable number of in these regions will either not vote or do not know who to vote for.
Other regions
54% responders in the survey from the Ashanti Region said they would vote for the NPP in the December 2020 election as against 12% for the NDC.
Similarly, 48% of people in the Central Region said they are going to the NPP, while 16% said they will vote for the NDC.
Surprisingly, 47% of people in the Northern Region will vote for the NPP, whereas 33% of people in the same region will vote the NDC in the presidential election next year.
Greater Accra Region also pulled a surprise. 25% of responders surveyed said they will vote for the NPP as against 14% for the NDC.
In Eastern and Western regions, NPP recorded 30% and 37%. But the NDC got 18% and 17% of votes respectively. People in Bono Region said they would vote for the NPP (27%) and 14% for the NDC.
In the Upper West, Upper East and Volta regions, majority of the respondents said they would vote for the NDC. Whilst few said they would for the NPP.
For Upper West (50%), Upper East (31%) and Volta (40%) go favour of the NDC. While 19%, 14% and 9% from the Upper West, Upper East and Volta for the NPP.
The survey also indicated some sizable number of people in these 10 regions will either not vote or do not know who to vote for yet.
The Afrobarometer team in Ghana, led by the Ghana Center for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana), interviewed over 2000 adult Ghanaians between 16 September and 3 October 2019.
On the national level, more than four in 10 Ghanaians aren’t taking sides yet in a presidential race, outnumbering declared supporters of the ruling party as well as its challengers, survey revealed.
When asked in September-October how they would vote if a presidential election were held “tomorrow,” more Ghanaians said they would not vote or didn’t know or wouldn’t say how they would vote than declared for the governing NPP or the opposition NDC.
The proportion of adult citizens who said they would not vote is the highest since 2008 and has increased by 6 percentage point between 2017 and 2019, the survey further disclosed.
Among respondents who declared a preference, the NPP maintained a lead over the NDC, though its lead has shrunk by 15 points compared to survey responses in 2017.
The survey cautioned: “And without a clear understanding of undeclared voters, it is impossible to draw solid conclusions about a likely election outcome”.
These findings suggest that a large chunk of the electorate is still waiting to be convinced, during the year remaining before Ghana’s 2020 presidential election, to vote for a specific candidate – or even to vote at all.
Key findings
- When asked which party’s candidate they would vote for if presidential elections were held the following day, more than four in 10 Ghanaians (42%) said they would not vote (11%), did not know (12%), or refused to answer the question (19%).
- The proportion of Ghanaians who said they would not vote and who did not declare a voting intention is the highest recorded in Afrobarometer surveys going back to 2008.
- Youth were twice as likely as older citizens to say they would not vote (14% of those§ aged 18-35 vs. 7% of those aged 56 and above), as were urban residents (15%) compared to rural residents (7%).
- The proclivity to sit out the election was also considerably stronger among the highly§ educated (17% of those with post-secondary education) and relatively well-off citizens (13% among those experiencing no lived poverty) compared to the less educated (6% of those with no formal education) and poor citizens (4% among those experiencing high lived poverty).
- Compared to 2017, the proportion of respondents who said they would vote for the§ NPP has dwindled by 15 percentage points (from 49% to 34%) while the share who said they would vote for the NDC has remained unchanged (22%).
- Among declared voters, the NPP and NDC both held leads in eight out of the 16 regions, with the NDC generally more popular in the newly created regions.
A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of +/-2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
Round 8 surveys are planned in at least 35 countries in 2019/2020. Afrobarometer conducts face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice with nationally representative samples.
Seven rounds of surveys were completed in up to 38 countries including Ghana between 1999 and 2018.
Afrobarometer heads a pan-African, nonpartisan research network that conducts public attitude surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues across Africa.
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