Rachel Reeves’ surprise 8 am Downing Street address this morning was the clearest signal yet that tax rises are coming—and those looking to safeguard their savings and investments should seek advice urgently, says the CEO of global financial giant deVere Group.
Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere, says the finance minister’s silence on specific tax pledges “isn’t hesitation, it’s intent.”
“Governments test language carefully before they act. When ministers refuse to repeat categorical assurances, it’s deliberate,” he says. “This is choreography. The message, we believe, is pretty clear: tax rises are coming. Get ready.”
Reeves pointedly declined to restate Labour’s 2024 manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, national insurance, or VAT, saying only that she would “set out the individual policies at the Budget.”
She told the public that “pressures on the public finances” must be faced and that “the productivity performance we inherited is weaker than previously thought.”
“Her speech was as much about managing expectations as setting direction,” says Nigel Green.
“It was timed before markets opened to reassure investors about fiscal discipline while preparing taxpayers for what’s next.”
The latest official figures show UK government borrowing reached £20.2 billion in September, the highest for that month in five years, bringing total borrowing for the first half of the fiscal year close to £100 billion—well above forecasts. Analysts estimate a £30 billion fiscal gap ahead of the November 26 Budget.
“The arithmetic is brutal,” he says. “Debt servicing costs remain elevated, productivity has been downgraded, and growth is stagnant. Something has to give, and that something is tax policy.”
He warns that anyone with exposure to UK assets should now assume that changes to capital gains tax, dividend allowances, inheritance thresholds, and pension reliefs are probable, not possible.
“The narrative has turned from optimism to obligation,” he explains.
“The framing around ‘fairness’ and ‘opportunity’ always precedes structural shifts in taxation.
“It softens the ground for measures that raise revenue without seeming to break manifesto language too severely.”
The most likely targets, predicts deVere, are the ones governments reach for first in a fiscal squeeze.
“Freezes to inheritance thresholds, reductions in higher-rate pension relief, tighter dividend allowances, or alignment of capital gains with income tax can all be described as modernisation.
“But they amount to the same thing: a heavier burden on savers and investors.”
He notes that while the Chancellor reaffirmed her “iron-clad” fiscal rules—requiring day-to-day spending to be funded by tax receipts and debt to fall as a share of GDP by 2029–30—the reality is that those rules almost guarantee revenue-raising measures in the near term.
“Debt interest payments are consuming more than £110 billion a year—one of the highest levels on record—and gilt yields, though down slightly today to around 4.4%, remain historically high,” Nigel Green says.
“With those pressures, tax rises aren’t a policy choice, they’re a fiscal necessity.”
He warns that the wider implications go beyond retirees and high-income earners.
“Raising effective tax rates on savings, investments, and pensions depresses consumer confidence, constrains domestic demand, and risks driving mobile capital elsewhere. It also undermines Britain’s credibility as a stable investment jurisdiction.”
Nigel Green says deVere has already seen a sharp increase in clients reviewing their positions ahead of the Budget.
“Every time governments start testing messages, informed investors act before the announcement. Once the Chancellor delivers her statement on November 26, the options to mitigate exposure will narrow quickly.”
He concludes: “Today’s surprise, emergency speech removes almost all doubt — tax rises are coming. Those serious about protecting their savings and investments are already seeking advice before the Budget confirms it.”